A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
